The S&P 500 can deliver a very different result from one year to the next. A year with a gain of more than 30% can be followed by a loss, while several strong years can occur in a row. Looking at the full annual history gives a better picture of market volatility than relying on a single long-term average.
This guide shows S&P 500 returns by year from 1928 through 2025, using total returns that include dividends. It also explains why annual returns can differ so sharply from long-term averages and how to use historical performance when building an investment projection.
Quick Answer:
The S&P 500 has experienced both exceptional gains and substantial losses throughout its history. From 1928 through 2025, the strongest calendar-year total return was +52.56% in 1954, while the weakest was −43.84% in 1931. The latest completed year, 2025, produced a 17.78% total return, including dividends.
Review the long-term growth implications in the Investment Calculator.
How we approached this analysis
The annual figures use the NYU Stern historical U.S. returns dataset maintained by Aswath Damodaran. The S&P 500 series is a total-return series, meaning dividends are included. This makes it more appropriate for evaluating the historical performance of an investment that reinvests dividends than a price-only index series. Historical returns are reported by calendar year and do not represent the after-tax return of any particular investor.
The modern S&P 500 launched on March 4, 1957. Data before that launch date belongs to a historical/back-tested series, not live performance of the modern 500-stock index at that time.
TL;DR
- S&P 500 returns vary substantially by year: the historical record includes both gains above 50% and losses greater than 40%.
- Dividends are included: the annual figures represent total return rather than price appreciation alone.
- The strongest year was 1954 at +52.56%, while the weakest was 1931 at −43.84%.
- 2025 returned 17.78%, following gains of 24.88% in 2024 and 26.06% in 2023.
- A long-term average is not a typical annual outcome: individual calendar years can be far above or below it.
- S&P 500 returns by year are most useful for understanding volatility, while long-term CAGR is more appropriate for measuring compounded growth over a specific period.
What Were the S&P 500 Returns by Year?
The table below provides the complete annual history from 1928 through 2025. It is intended as a reference for investors researching historical S&P 500 performance.
The figures are total returns, so dividends are included and assumed to be reinvested.
| Year | Total Return | Year | Total Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1928 | +43.81% | 1977 | −6.98% |
| 1929 | −8.30% | 1978 | +6.51% |
| 1930 | −25.12% | 1979 | +18.52% |
| 1931 | −43.84% | 1980 | +31.74% |
| 1932 | −8.64% | 1981 | −4.70% |
| 1933 | +49.98% | 1982 | +20.42% |
| 1934 | −1.19% | 1983 | +22.34% |
| 1935 | +46.74% | 1984 | +6.15% |
| 1936 | +31.94% | 1985 | +31.24% |
| 1937 | −35.34% | 1986 | +18.49% |
| 1938 | +29.28% | 1987 | +5.81% |
| 1939 | −1.10% | 1988 | +16.54% |
| 1940 | −10.67% | 1989 | +31.48% |
| 1941 | −12.77% | 1990 | −3.06% |
| 1942 | +19.17% | 1991 | +30.23% |
| 1943 | +25.06% | 1992 | +7.49% |
| 1944 | +19.03% | 1993 | +9.97% |
| 1945 | +35.82% | 1994 | +1.33% |
| 1946 | −8.43% | 1995 | +37.20% |
| 1947 | +5.20% | 1996 | +22.68% |
| 1948 | +5.70% | 1997 | +33.10% |
| 1949 | +18.30% | 1998 | +28.34% |
| 1950 | +30.81% | 1999 | +20.89% |
| 1951 | +23.68% | 2000 | −9.03% |
| 1952 | +18.15% | 2001 | −11.85% |
| 1953 | −1.21% | 2002 | −21.97% |
| 1954 | +52.56% | 2003 | +28.36% |
| 1955 | +32.60% | 2004 | +10.74% |
| 1956 | +7.44% | 2005 | +4.83% |
| 1957 | −10.46% | 2006 | +15.61% |
| 1958 | +43.72% | 2007 | +5.48% |
| 1959 | +12.06% | 2008 | −36.55% |
| 1960 | +0.34% | 2009 | +25.94% |
| 1961 | +26.64% | 2010 | +14.82% |
| 1962 | −8.81% | 2011 | +2.10% |
| 1963 | +22.61% | 2012 | +15.89% |
| 1964 | +16.42% | 2013 | +32.15% |
| 1965 | +12.40% | 2014 | +13.52% |
| 1966 | −9.97% | 2015 | +1.38% |
| 1967 | +23.80% | 2016 | +11.77% |
| 1968 | +10.81% | 2017 | +21.61% |
| 1969 | −8.24% | 2018 | −4.23% |
| 1970 | +3.56% | 2019 | +31.21% |
| 1971 | +14.22% | 2020 | +18.02% |
| 1972 | +18.76% | 2021 | +28.47% |
| 1973 | −14.31% | 2022 | −18.04% |
| 1974 | −25.90% | 2023 | +26.06% |
| 1975 | +37.00% | 2024 | +24.88% |
| 1976 | +23.83% | 2025 | +17.78% |
Historical total returns include dividends. Actual investor results vary because of fees, taxes, fund expenses, tracking differences, and investment timing.
Why Can S&P 500 Returns Change So Much From One Year to the Next?
The annual history shows why using a single percentage to describe stock-market performance can be misleading.
Consider the five-year period from 2006 through 2010:
| Year | S&P 500 Total Return |
|---|---|
| 2006 | +15.61% |
| 2007 | +5.48% |
| 2008 | −36.55% |
| 2009 | +25.94% |
| 2010 | +14.82% |
Illustrative historical sequence.
The market moved from a positive year to one of its largest annual losses and then rebounded sharply.
A similar pattern appeared more recently:
| Year | S&P 500 Total Return |
|---|---|
| 2020 | +18.02% |
| 2021 | +28.47% |
| 2022 | −18.04% |
| 2023 | +26.06% |
| 2024 | +24.88% |
| 2025 | +17.78% |
Illustrative historical sequence.
This is an important distinction for investors: a long-term annualized return does not describe the path an investor experiences from year to year.
What Were the Best and Worst S&P 500 Years?
The strongest and weakest calendar years show the historical range of possible outcomes.
| Rank | Best Year | Return | Worst Year | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1954 | +52.56% | 1931 | −43.84% |
| 2 | 1933 | +49.98% | 2008 | −36.55% |
| 3 | 1935 | +46.74% | 1937 | −35.34% |
| 4 | 1928 | +43.81% | 1974 | −25.90% |
| 5 | 1958 | +43.72% | 1930 | −25.12% |
Historical total returns from the annual S&P 500 series.
The difference between the best and worst years is nearly 97 percentage points.
That does not mean an investor should expect either extreme in a normal year. It demonstrates instead that annual stock-market returns have historically had a wide distribution.
Why Doesn't the S&P 500's Annual Return Equal Its Long-Term Return?
An annual return answers:
How much did the S&P 500 gain or lose during this calendar year?
A CAGR answers a different question:
How quickly did an investment compound annually over a specific multi-year period?
Those measures should not be confused.
For example, suppose an investment gains 20% in the first year and loses 20% in the second year.
The arithmetic average is:
(20% + −20%) ÷ 2 = 0%
But an investment of $10,000 would become:
$10,000 × 1.20 × 0.80 = $9,600
The investor therefore lost 4% over the two-year period.
The compound annual growth rate is negative, even though the arithmetic average of the two annual returns is 0%.
This is why calculating investment returns with CAGR is more appropriate when measuring compounded growth over multiple years.
Does the S&P 500 Return Include Dividends?
It depends on which return series is being used.
The historical data in this article uses the S&P 500 total return, which includes dividends.
A price-return calculation measures only the change in the index level. A total-return calculation accounts for both price appreciation and dividends, assuming the dividends are reinvested.
For long-term investment analysis, this distinction matters because dividends contribute to compound growth.
Misconception: If the S&P 500 index rose 10%, every investor necessarily earned exactly 10%.
Reality: An investor's actual return can differ because of dividends, fund expenses, taxes, tracking differences, trading costs, and the timing of purchases and sales.
How Does the S&P 500's Annual History Compare With Its 50-Year Return?
This article and the average stock market returns over the last 50 years article answer different questions.
The annual-return table answers:
"What did the S&P 500 return in each individual year?"
The 50-year analysis answers:
"How quickly did the S&P 500 compound over a specific 50-year period?"
For 1976–2025, the FinCalWise 50-year analysis calculates an 11.92% nominal annualized total return, with dividends reinvested.
That 11.92% figure should not be interpreted as meaning the S&P 500 returned approximately 11.92% in every year. The annual history shows how far individual years can move above or below a long-term CAGR.
| Question | Appropriate measure |
|---|---|
| What happened in 2025? | 2025 annual total return |
| How volatile were individual years? | Annual return history |
| How fast did an investment compound from 1976–2025? | CAGR |
| How much purchasing power changed? | Real return |
| How could an investment grow under a future assumption? | Investment projection |
What Does a Volatile Return Sequence Do to an Investment?
The order of returns changes the path of an investment balance, including when declines and recoveries occur. For a lump sum with no additional contributions or withdrawals, rearranging the same returns does not change the ending balance. With contributions or withdrawals during the period, the order can change the ending balance: this is the financial sequence-of-returns effect.
Consider a hypothetical $10,000 investment with no additional contributions or withdrawals, exposed to the actual S&P 500 total returns from 2022 through 2024:
- 2022: −18.04%
- 2023: +26.06%
- 2024: +24.88%
The calculation is:
$10,000 × 0.8196 × 1.2606 × 1.2488 ≈ $12,902
The investment would end the three-year period at approximately $12,902, or about 29% above the starting amount.
The investor first experienced an 18% decline before the subsequent gains. Reversing those three returns would still produce approximately $12,902 because the same growth factors are multiplied together. The balance would follow a different path, changing when the investor experiences losses and recoveries.
Contributions or withdrawals change how much money is exposed to each return. For example, withdrawals during an early decline leave less capital invested to benefit from a later recovery, so the same returns in a different order can produce a different ending balance.
This is one reason historical returns should be viewed as a sequence of outcomes, rather than as a smooth annual growth rate.
How Should You Use Historical S&P 500 Returns in Financial Planning?
Historical returns can help establish realistic ranges for scenario analysis, but they should not be treated as guaranteed future performance.
If you are estimating the future value of an investment, compare several assumptions rather than entering a single historical annual return.
For example:
| Assumed Annual Return | Initial Investment | Monthly Contribution | Time Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6% | $10,000 | $500 | 20 years |
| 8% | $10,000 | $500 | 20 years |
| 10% | $10,000 | $500 | 20 years |
Illustrative — actual results vary.
The purpose of this comparison is to show how sensitive a long-term projection can be to the assumed rate of return.
You can model different investment return assumptions while changing the contribution amount, starting balance, time horizon, and expected return.
For a simpler compounding exercise, the Compound Interest Calculator can isolate the effect of the assumed rate and compounding period.
For retirement planning, it can also be useful to compare market-return assumptions with the assumptions used in a broader retirement return rate analysis.
What Is the Difference Between Historical Return and Expected Return?
A historical return is an observation.
An expected return is an assumption about the future.
Those concepts are related but not interchangeable.
For example, if an investor sees that the S&P 500 produced a strong long-term historical CAGR, that does not mean the market will reproduce the same result over the investor's next 10, 20, or 30 years.
Future results can differ because of:
- Valuation levels
- Earnings growth
- Interest rates
- Inflation
- Dividend yields
- Economic conditions
- Market composition
- Investor behavior
- Starting and ending dates
Historical data is therefore most useful when it helps an investor stress-test a plan, rather than when it is used as a promise of future performance.
How Can You Model Different S&P 500 Return Assumptions?
The Investment Calculator can be used to compare how different annual return assumptions affect a hypothetical portfolio.
For example, an investor could run the same scenario at 6%, 8%, and 10% annual returns and compare the ending balances.
That does not forecast the S&P 500.
Instead, it answers a more practical question:
"If my investment compounds at different rates, how much does that change my long-term outcome?"
This distinction is particularly important when the investment horizon is long because small differences in the assumed return can compound into large differences in projected balances.
Key Takeaways From S&P 500 Returns by Year
- S&P 500 returns by year can vary dramatically, with historical annual gains above 50% and losses above 40%.
- Total return includes dividends, so these figures differ from price-only S&P 500 performance.
- The best calendar year was 1954 at +52.56%, while the worst was 1931 at −43.84%.
- The S&P 500 returned 17.78% in 2025, following two consecutive years of gains above 20%.
- Annual returns should not be confused with CAGR: a long-term annualized return does not describe what happened in every individual year.
- Historical S&P 500 returns are better used for context and scenario analysis than as a forecast of future performance.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the S&P 500 returns by year?
S&P 500 returns by year are the annual percentage gains or losses recorded by the index. The historical series used here covers 1928 through 2025 and uses total returns that include dividends.
What was the S&P 500 return in 2025?
The S&P 500 produced a 17.78% total return in 2025, including dividends, according to the NYU Stern historical returns dataset.
What was the S&P 500 return in 2024?
The S&P 500 produced a 24.88% total return in 2024, including dividends.
What was the worst S&P 500 year?
The worst annual result in the historical series from 1928 through 2025 was −43.84% in 1931. The S&P 500 also experienced a major decline of −36.55% in 2008.
What was the best S&P 500 year?
The strongest annual result from 1928 through 2025 was +52.56% in 1954.
Does the S&P 500 return include dividends?
The figures in this article do. They use the S&P 500 total-return series, which includes dividends. This differs from the price return, which measures changes in the index level without treating dividends as part of the return.
Should I use the historical S&P 500 return as my expected investment return?
Not automatically. Historical returns provide context, but they do not guarantee future performance. For financial planning, it is generally more useful to compare several return assumptions and account for fees, taxes, inflation, portfolio allocation, and investment horizon. You can stress-test your assumptions with the Investment Calculator.
Sources and Methodology
The primary historical dataset is Aswath Damodaran's NYU Stern Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills dataset. The S&P 500 series includes dividends and provides annual observations beginning in 1928.
The analysis treats each calendar year independently. It does not attempt to reconstruct the return of a particular ETF, mutual fund, or investor account.
The historical figures therefore do not account for:
- Investment-management fees
- ETF or mutual-fund expense ratios
- Taxes
- Trading costs
- Bid-ask spreads
- Timing differences
- Individual investor behavior
The 2025 figure is the latest completed annual observation in the dataset used for this analysis.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making financial decisions.